Due to increased macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, Danish liner giant Maersk has lowered its forecast for the global container market in 2025. Earlier this year, Maersk predicted a 4% increase, but the latest forecast ranges from a 1% decrease to a 4% increase.
Due to the rapidly evolving trade policy landscape and the increased risk of a US recession, the outlook for global container demand for the rest of the year remains highly uncertain. However, if shippers take advantage of the 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs to ship in advance and build inventory, the container market is expected to grow in the second quarter.
Maersk believes that in the second half of this year, on the one hand, there is an increasing risk of shrinking demand, and on the other hand, if tariffs are rolled back, trade may also rebound.
Maersk has not cancelled any transpacific services this year, while German liner giant Hapag-Lloyd cancelled 30% of cargo from China to the United States last month. The company added that policy uncertainty and the threat of further escalation in the trade war “cast a shadow” on the outlook for the U.S. economy.
“If Chinese exporters divert lost US exports to other markets, a protectionist backlash could ensue, potentially sparking a wider trade war,” Maersk warned. Meanwhile, the Red Sea turmoil is expected to continue throughout the year.
Global container bookings fell 25% week-on-week last week, but were up 15% year-on-year after four consecutive weeks of declines, according to HSBC. China-to-US bookings fell 27%, but the rate of decline slowed. Non-China-to-US bookings were up 16% year-on-year.