Despite weak demand for major commodities, the industry has revised upwards its forecast for dry bulk fleet growth to 2025 due to strong newbuilding deliveries and sluggish dismantling activities.
Shipbroker Howe Robinson Partners’ mid-year review shows that in the first half of 2025, global shipyards delivered a total of 278 bulk carriers over 10,000 dwt, totaling 18.3 million dwt. This figure is roughly the same as the previous two years: 271 ships (18.9 million dwt) were delivered in the first half of 2024, and 248 ships (18.7 million dwt) were delivered in the first half of 2023.
After a strong start to 2025, the dismantling market slowed in the second quarter of this year. Uncertainty arising from discussions by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) regarding Chinese shipbuilding – the majority of bulk carriers over 20 years old are built in Japan – along with falling steel prices and improved profitability, were the main factors contributing to the slowdown in ship dismantling activity.
Howe Robinson reported that a total of 38 bulk carriers (2.4 million deadweight tons) were scrapped in the first half of 2025, compared to 2.35 million deadweight tons in the same period last year. As a result, the net fleet growth rate for the first half of 2025 was 1.5%, slightly lower than the 1.7% recorded in the same period of 2024. Due to the lower-than-expected dismantling volume, shipbrokers have revised their forecast for the annual net fleet growth rate upward from 2.5% to 2.8%.
On the demand side, dry bulk commodity trade is expected to slow significantly in 2025, with bauxite being the only major commodity expected to see significant growth.
Shipbrokers estimate that total dry bulk demand will grow by only 0.7% in 2025, a sharp decline from 3.6% in 2024 and 4.6% in 2023.
Iron ore, which accounts for approximately 28.0% of global dry bulk trade, is expected to contract by 0.3% in 2025 after two consecutive years of growth. Coal demand, which accounts for 24.0% of dry bulk trade, may decline by 4.8%, while grain trade is expected to decline by 0.9%.
In contrast, other bulk commodities, which account for 34.0% of total trade, are expected to grow by 4.1%, essentially unchanged from 4.2% in 2024. Bauxite, which accounts for only 4.0% of dry bulk trade, continues to perform strongly, with an expected increase of 18.0% in 2025, following a 17.0% increase in 2024.