Driven by stronger-than-expected global container shipping demand and sustained increases in spot freight rates—particularly on Far East routes—Maersk, the world’s second-largest container ship owner, has raised its full-year financial guidance for 2026. Maersk is scheduled to release its second-quarter earnings report on August 13.
Maersk now projects full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA to range between $8 billion and $10 billion, significantly higher than the previous forecast of $4.5 billion to $7 billion. The outlook for adjusted EBIT has been revised from a range of a $1.5 billion loss to a $1 billion profit to a projected profit of $2 billion to $4 billion. Free cash flow expectations have also been raised, with the projected minimum outflow revised from $3 billion to $1.5 billion.
Maersk stated that the upward revision of its earnings forecast reflects the continued resilience of container demand and the ongoing rise in spot freight rates. The company also raised its forecast for global container market volume growth in 2026 to approximately 4%, up from the previous range of 2% to 4%.
As a leading player in the container shipping sector, the company has raised its outlook at a time when the industry continues to benefit from prolonged supply chain disruptions—conditions that have kept freight rates on major East-West trade routes consistently high. Although geopolitical tensions present significant challenges for both shipping companies and cargo owners, these same factors have also driven up demand for vessel capacity by extending voyage times and disrupting route networks, thereby helping to support freight rates.
Last week, Allianz Commercial warned that global shipping has entered a new era of heightened geopolitical risk, noting that disruptions in areas such as the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz are evolving from temporary issues into structural ones. The insurer stated that shipping companies should prepare for greater volatility and anticipate a lasting shift in global supply chains toward models that are more resilient—albeit more costly.
Maersk is currently maintaining comprehensive contingency measures for its operations in the Middle East. In its latest operational update, the company stated that it will continue to restrict bookings to various Gulf markets, reroute cargo via alternative hubs and inland corridors, and levy emergency surcharges to cover additional costs associated with storage, vessel chartering, and rerouting.