Western experts believe that by 2030, the U.S. will have absolutely no chance of building domestically produced liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers ready for deployment. At best, it may achieve “US-branded” vessels, but Trump’s “LNG shipbuilding made in America” will ultimately remain a dream.
The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) has issued a directive requiring that starting in 2029, 1% of U.S.-exported LNG must be transported using U.S.-built LNG carriers, with this proportion increasing to 15% by 2047.
Hanwha Group of South Korea plans to invest $5 billion in its U.S. shipbuilding subsidiary, Hanwha Philly Shipyard, to launch an LNG carrier construction project at the facility. The move has been met with widespread skepticism from shipping and energy analysts.
This commitment by South Korea’s seventh-largest industrial conglomerate aims to support the South Korean government’s recently announced $150 billion “American Shipbuilding Revitalization Plan”, which also serves as a key component of President Trump’s “Make America Great Again” strategy.
Western observers, however, expressed astonishment that anyone could believe an inexperienced shipyard could achieve such an upgrade from scratch in just a few years—introducing the latest design and construction technologies, training traditional laborers, and ultimately building one of the most sophisticated and complex vessels.
The USTR requires that starting in 2029, 1% of U.S. LNG exports must be transported via American-made LNG carriers, with this proportion rising to 15% by 2047. However, analysts from shipping consultancy Drewry point out that by 2030, the U.S. plans to add 70 million tons of annual LNG production capacity—nearly double last year’s output of 88 million tons. The U.S. is currently the world’s largest LNG exporter and is likely to maintain this position for years to come.
It remains unclear how long it will take Hanwha Philly Shipyard to construct its flagship 174,000-cubic-meter LNG carriers. However, even for South Korea’s most technologically advanced and experienced shipyards, building such vessels typically requires approximately 30 months. While Hanwha Philly Shipyard currently has no backlog of orders, experts emphasize that it is absolutely impossible for the U.S. to deploy domestically produced LNG carriers by 2030.
Pratiksha Negi, Drewry’s chief analyst for gas shipping, stated that the cost of U.S.-built LNG carriers could reach two to four times the current South Korean price (approximately $260 million). She added that building domestically produced LNG carriers in the U.S. by 2030 is impossible. By 2029, we can still expect to see vessels built in South Korea but flying the American flag, but LNG carriers entirely manufactured within the U.S. will remain a dream.
She noted that attention must also be paid to other multiple factors. Due to longer shipping distances and higher costs, U.S. LNG destined for European markets is already more expensive than LNG from Qatar or Africa. The significant increase in the cost of LNG carriers will drive up charter rates, thereby raising the cost of the final delivered product. This will impact the economic viability of related projects.
Additionally, she noted that U.S. plans targeting Asian consumers may face challenges due to the region’s greater price sensitivity. With European demand expected to slow after 2032-33, U.S. exporters are shifting their focus toward Asian markets. However, faced with higher liquefied natural gas (LNG) cost of supply, Asian customers are likely to turn to closer sources, including Qatar and Australia.